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    同比降35%!東莞去年二手房成交量“大跳水” 回到4年前
    作者:中國板報網    來源:www.cqrgzs.com    點擊數:    更新時間:2019/1/25

      “三價合一”、利率上浮、一手促銷,一直擁有強勢基因的東莞二手房市場,在諸多阻礙因素的疊加之下敗下陣來。根據東莞中原略研究中心監測數據顯示,2018年東莞二手房成交量“大跳水”,同比下降35%,回落至2014年的水平。

      分析二手房成交特點,隨著二孩時代來臨,三房取代兩房成為市場最受青睞戶型。而購房者中,省外占了近5成。業內分析,今年在購房需求釋放、新房供應緊張等多重利好之下,二手房市場成交量有望回升,而且議價空間也將加大。

      成交量回落至2014年水平

      東莞二手網簽量從2016年的高位,到2017年的回落,再到2018年的平穩,成交活躍度減退明顯。東莞中原略研究中心監測數據顯示,去年東莞二手住宅全年僅網簽31156套,同比大幅減少了35%,回落到2014年的水平。

      二手房成交大幅跳水跟去年整體政策環境息息相關。去年2月,東莞各大銀行開始執行“三價合一”政策,終結了“陰陽合同”、“高評高貸”等漏洞,購房成本及門檻均大幅提高。與此同時,房貸利率高居不下、一手房市場“金九銀十”開啟降價促銷大潮,這些疊加因素也給了二手房致命一擊。

      從二手房成交量來看,有8成鎮街成交量萎縮,萎縮較嚴重的有南城、常平、鳳崗、塘廈、莞城、厚街、橋頭、茶山、高埗。成交主要以臨深及中心城區為主。其中,樟木頭、東城、南城、常平四個鎮街的成交量共占全市44%。

      房價總價跑高,再加上信貸環境偏緊,東莞二手房按揭比例明顯走低。合富大數據顯示,按揭比例從前兩年的八成以上,下降到2018年的68%,相反,一次性付款比例則達32%。首次置業者仍以按揭購房為主,其按揭比例為75%,而改善型一次性付款比例則達38%,明顯多于首次置業。

      戶型:三房取代兩房,成最受青睞戶型

      從二手房成交特點來看,三居及以上戶型取代兩房,成為了最受青睞的戶型。業內分析,隨著二胎政策的放開及盡可能的“一步到位”、減少換房頻次,去年一居、兩居的成交占比有所減少。加之東莞已進入換房時代,受到部分購買力較強的改善換房需求支撐,三居及以上戶型成交量上升,80-120㎡剛需戶型最受歡迎。同樣,受到“三價合一”政策影響,較大戶型如144㎡-200㎡戶型由于面積較大、成本較高,且非普通住宅首付要6成以上,故成交萎縮尤其嚴重。

      樓齡是影響房價的一個重要因素。東莞中原對最近兩年的二手房成交數據分析發現,二手房的價格與樓齡呈高度負相關的關系。樓齡越高,價格越低,樓齡15~20年房源的房價約為5年內次新房價格的6.5折左右,樓齡25年以上房源的房價則不到萬元。不過,“三價合一”令二手房的購房門檻大幅提高后,購房者對高樓齡房源的接受度有了一定提高,數據顯示,去年樓齡15年以上的成交占比有所提高。

      買家:外地占八成,港澳買家購房暫無明顯變化

      合富大數據顯示,2018年,二手房買家中首次置業比例為62%,比2017年的55%有所增加,尤其是在年尾,首次剛需買家積極入市,第四季度首置比例達到八成以上。另外,東莞二手房購買者依然是以外地買家為主。東莞中原數據顯示,去年東莞本市買家只占16%,省內(東莞以外)占了37%,省外(廣東以外)占了47%。與去年相比,省內買家有所減少,省外買家略有增加。

      在購房者中,港澳臺買家占了3%。去年,來自香港的Amy夫婦就在東城買了一套三居室。“我們看好東莞的前景,特別是廣深港高鐵開通后,兩地來往更便利,城市融合更緊密了,買房不僅可以偶爾自主,還能當做投資。”A m y表示,他們還有意愿再買一個二手房,“二手房不限購,比較適合我們。”

      據東莞鏈家數據統計,去年港澳購房者購買二手房的比例占了百分之一左右,而購買一手房的更是微乎其微。東莞鏈家相關負責人告訴記者,雖然港澳人士來莞買房可以辦理居住證,但是貸款也會相對麻煩一些,要提交身份證明,甚至還需要去做公證,“所以從成交量來看,目前整體變化不大。”

      租金:套均租金2512元/月,回報率“南低北高”

      租房市場也是影響房子投資回報的一個重要因素。據合富大數據顯示,2018年東莞住宅套均租金為2512元/月,與2017年相比基本持平。其中,公寓的套均租金為1898元/月,比一房一廳的套均租金高出18%,而兩房及三房單位最受租客歡迎,成交占比分別為27%和31%,每月套均租金分別在2327元和3030元左右,不少人都樂于選擇合租一套單位,以分擔居住成本。

      東莞中原戰略研究中心分析,東莞制造業發達,人口在各鎮街分布相對比較分散,且民房較多,總體來看,各鎮街租金差距不大。但是中心城區、松山湖、長安、塘廈、虎門、厚街等配套齊全、經濟發達的鎮街,租金相對較高。

      由于各鎮街的租金差距不大,房價成為影響回報率的主要因素,整體呈現“南低北高”的走勢。在南部投資屬性稍高的泛臨深地區,雖租金較高,但房價整體水平同樣較高,故回報率墊底。在東北部及水鄉片鎮區,雖然租金略低于全市平均值,但房價較為“低洼”,故投資回報率相對較高。

      受政策影響,中介行業也迎來了重新洗牌。年中,東莞房地產中介協會會長羅鳳在接受采訪時坦言,“2018年,受到房貸利率上浮、三價合一等共同作用,二手房成交一落千丈,成交量回到了2008年的水平,全市約三分之一的中介門店倒閉了,很多經紀人轉行。”

      后市:今年新房供應相對緊張,利好二手房市場

      東莞中原戰略研究中心總經理車德銳分析,今年“滿五唯一”的房子依然會是成交熱點。自2018年2月份以來,東莞各大銀行逐漸實行“三價合一”,二手房的購買成本及門檻均大幅提高,甚至出現部分需求流入一手市場的情況。因此,在二手房成本大幅提高的情況下,“滿五唯一”房源可免交增值稅和個稅,成為市場首選。

      從2018年東莞二手房市場表現出來的特征來看,隨著總體購房成本上升,中、大面積的房源成交萎縮嚴重,剛需戶型持續走俏。而當前二胎政策放開、換房成本提高,一房、兩房成交占比減少,80至120平方米的剛需戶型成交相對較好。

      “在今年多重利好因素下,東莞二手房市場成交量有望回升。”車德銳分析,2018年東莞部分購房需求未能釋放,加上今年新房供應相對緊張,而且房貸利息成為個稅的抵扣項之一,將利好二手房市場。與此同時,業主預期心態也在轉變,議價空間加大,對二手房的成交產生積極作用。

    (文章來源:南方都市報)

    同比降35%!東莞去年二手房成交量“大跳水” 回到4年前

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