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    2019年債券牛市或仍在半途 配置上向高性價比品種轉移
    作者:中國板報網    來源:www.cqrgzs.com    點擊數:    更新時間:2019/1/25

      2019年債券市場如何演繹、如何布局成為投資者關注的焦點問題。融通基金固定收益投資總監張一格近期在接受媒體采訪時指出,2018年的債券市場整體呈現牛市走勢。從時間和空間維度,2019年債券牛市或仍在半途,需要在行情演進當中對行情拐點做好判斷,警惕市場階段性波動的增大。

      展望2019年的宏觀經濟環境,張一格認為需要關注內部和外部兩個方面。從內部經濟動能來看,宏觀經濟下行趨勢未改,各經濟分項可能面臨下行壓力的共振。從杠桿主體來看,地方政府、房地產商、居民等部門加杠桿均面臨壓力,短期內只能以中央政府加杠桿托底為主。從經濟分項來看,外貿、地產投資、消費、制造業投資均面臨不同程度的下行壓力。盡管穩增長政策持續加碼,基建補短板力度有望加大,但采取的是托而不舉的方式,預計改變不了基本面在2019年下行的方向。因此,跟蹤2019年宏觀的變化,尤其要關注穩增長政策發揮效力的程度和時間。

      從內部信用環境來看,張一格分析,2017年到2018年,我們看到金融防風險政策對以往不規范的各類表外進行了整肅,過去采取過于激進方式發展的企業外部流動性被收緊,非標和信用債市場頻發風險事件,這一情況預計將在2019年邊際改善。但是,我們更關注宏觀經濟下行背景下企業內部現金流的下滑壓力,2019年仍然要對信用風險保持足夠的警惕。

      張一格解釋,從外部來看,2019年全球經濟將從2018年的分化逐漸走向收斂,方向上趨于一致下行。伴隨美聯儲加息周期進入后半程,美元資產相對比價優勢的減弱有望減輕我們的匯率和資本外流壓力,為貨幣政策更專注于國內目標騰挪空間,國內利率中樞存在跟隨全球廣譜利率進一步下行的可能。

      展望2019年,張一格判斷,“社融收縮下的基本面下行壓力”和“貨幣政策合理充裕定調下的流動性寬松”兩大基礎對債券市場仍有支撐,整體利率中樞的下移仍然具備空間。從時間和空間維度,債券牛市或仍在半途,需要在行情演進當中對行情拐點做好判斷,警惕市場階段性波動的增大。

      在策略上,張一格認為,立足于牛市或過半的周期位置,配置上可以考慮向信用債等具備較高性價比的品種轉移,同時對偏長久期利率債期限利差壓縮的機會保持關注。此外,在2019年的行情演繹過程中,要及時跟蹤宏觀環境的變化,精選轉債中的高性價比個券,向權益資產要收益。在操作層面上,信用債投資仍然需要將控制信用風險作為第一要務,做好行業和個券的識別工作。

    (文章來源:新民晚報)

    2019年債券牛市或仍在半途 配置上向高性價比品種轉移

    黑板報



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