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    南方養老金支援東北?現實:東北退休金水平與廣東無差別
    作者:中國板報網    來源:www.cqrgzs.com    點擊數:    更新時間:2019/1/25

      廣東2017年末城鎮職工基本養老保險累計結余9245億元;黑龍江是全國倒數第一,該項累計結余為負486億元。


      廣東2400元;黑龍江2119元:從2015年企業退休人員月均養老金這一指標來分析,稍稍領先的廣東和略微落后的黑龍江之間,并沒有太明顯的差別。

      可如果考察城鎮職工基本養老保險累計結余,差距立刻懸殊了起來:

      廣東是全國第一,2017年末城鎮職工基本養老保險累計結余9245億元;

      黑龍江是全國倒數第一,該項累計結余為負486億元。

      近日,針對東北養老金不足的問題,中國財政學會副會長、前財政部財政科學研究所所長賈康支招,用南方多年的滾存結余調到東北救燃眉之急。一時間,上述建議引發社會熱議。

      每日經濟新聞記者梳理發現,網友的質疑主要集中在三個方面:退休人員待遇差距是否合理,東北養老金去了哪里、該怎樣解決缺口問題。對此記者試圖展開深度剖析,并一窺養老金收不抵支背后的秘密。

      質疑一:東北與南方退休人員待遇是否差異較大?

      對于這一話題,網友更多關注養老金調劑是否公平,聚焦個人切身利益。網友們爭議最為激烈的是:東北職工退休金水平如何,在全國來看是高還是低?東北三省收不抵支的缺口為什么越來越大?

      每日經濟新聞記者發現,2016年黑龍江養老金當期結余被指“穿底”,為負320億元,成為當期收不抵支最嚴重的省份;同年,廣東的當期結余達到1140億元,而累計結余規模更高達7652.6億元,位列全國第一。

      根據人社部社保管理中心報告顯示,2016年企業養老金累計結余前五位的依次是:廣東、北京、江蘇、浙江、山東;當期收不抵支最嚴重的五個省份依次是:黑龍江、遼寧、河北、吉林、內蒙古。

      其中,黑龍江不僅當期收不抵支,累計結余也為負196億元,是唯一累計結余資金被花光的省份。


      值得注意的是,根據退休人員養老金發放規則,養老金的領取標準與繳納金額、參保年限、當地社會平均工資等因素相關。那么,全國各省市區的退休人員養老金的平均水平如何?

      記者梳理發現,對比企業養老金累計結余最多的5個省份和當期收不抵支最嚴重的5個省份,除了北京市外其他各省份退休人員人均養老金水平相差并不大。而對于結余已經穿底的黑龍江來說,其退休人員社保待遇甚至比某些結余居前列的省份還要高。

      人社部數據顯示,2015年,全國企業離退休人員每月人均養老金2251元,廣東、江蘇、浙江等略高于全國平均水平,遼寧、黑龍江等與全國平均水平基本持平。

      實際上,衡量退休人員養老金標準的一個重要指標是與當地社會平均工資之比。比如:2015年,廣東省在崗職工月平均工資5525元,退休人員養老金是其0.43倍;江蘇省在崗職工月平均工資5600元,退休人員養老金是其0.44倍。

      與之相對應的是,2015年,遼寧在崗職工月平均工資4455元,退休人員養老金是其0.49倍;黑龍江在崗職工月平均工資4073元,退休人員養老金是其0.52倍。

      不難看出,與廣東、江蘇等養老金結余較多的省份相比,黑龍江、遼寧等地的退休金標準并不低,從與當地社會平均工資之比來看,甚至還略高于一些南方省份。

      質疑二:收不抵支,錢去哪兒了?

      城鎮職工養老金的收支缺口問題日益凸顯,人社部公開數據顯示,2014年底只有河北、黑龍江、寧夏3個省份當期收不抵支。2015年,黑龍江、遼寧、吉林、河北、陜西和青海共6省份的城鎮企業職工養老保險基金當期“入不敷出”。2016年,湖北成為第7個當期收不抵支的省份。

      同時,從缺口金額來看,黑龍江在2014年的當期收不抵支缺口是100億元左右,到2016年缺口擴大到了320億元。


      那么,黑龍江等省份城鎮職工養老金都去哪兒了呢?

      最重要的一個原因在于:“交錢”的群體增長慢,“領錢”的群體增長快。

      撫養比(參保職工人數與領取養老保險待遇人數的比值)這一關鍵指標近年來持續下降——全國平均水平由2014年的2.97:1降至2016年的2.87:1,也就是1個老人由2.87個人來供養。

      而東北三省的撫養比在全國又是較低的。2015年,遼寧、吉林、黑龍江三省的企業養老保險撫養比分別為1.79、1.53和1.33。這一數據甚至比已經步入老齡化社會的日本(約2:1)更低。

      此外,東北三省的養老金待遇增長較快。比如“十二五”期間,黑龍江企業退休人員基本養老金由月人均1076元提高到2119元,整體增長近一倍;遼寧基本養老金由月人均1296元提高至2200元,增長了70%;吉林省企業退休人員基礎養老金水平由月人均1126元提高到了1935元,增長72%。

      中國社科院世界社保研究中心秘書長房連泉告訴每日經濟新聞記者,東北三省養老金問題與當地的特點相關:一方面是它們的歷史負擔比較重,屬于重工業基地,國有企業退休的老職工比較多,贍養結構比較重,再加上近年來年輕人口流出比較多,很難產生征繳的空間;另一方面,近年來東北的經濟發展水平不高,導致就業形勢、工資增長空間等均不樂觀,也會影響養老基金的征繳。

      質疑三:除了向南方“借錢” 是否有其他途徑解決收支缺口問題?

      那么東北的養老金不夠,只能用南方多年的滾存結余調到東北救燃眉之急嗎?

      對此,房連泉介紹,要靠東北自己來解決養老金收不抵支的問題確實很難。養老基金來源中除了征收收入外,中央財政和地方財政也都會補一部分。如果仍舊出現較大缺口,就需要依靠全國統籌了。養老金全國統籌已經討論了很多年了,能很好地解決一些省份養老金不足的問題。


      “應該是全國一盤棋來考慮這個問題,不是直接拿南方的給北方用,而是通過全國統籌的方式來協調安排。”房連泉說。

      實際上,基本養老保險收不抵支的問題在國際上也比較常見。房連泉介紹,尤其是老齡化比較嚴重的一些國家,國家層面的社保都不同程度面臨收不抵支的問題,國外采取的一些措施是延遲退休、征繳擴面、提高繳費率等手段,還有就是利用養老金進行投資等來增加盈利性。

      房連泉認為,真正解決養老問題,不能單靠國家基本養老保險。在養老金中,日本國家的基本養老保險所占的比重較多,替代率能達到60%-70%。美國國家基本養老保險的替代率是40%,其大頭是靠企業年金和個人養老金,比較分散。新加坡主要是中央公積金,采取的是個人存錢的制度。

      房連泉介紹,美國的養老制度是我國未來養老的方向,要降低養老金的費率,讓企業給職工購買一部分保險,職工個人再購買一部分商業保險。

    (文章來源:每日經濟新聞)

    南方養老金支援東北?現實:東北退休金水平與廣東無差別

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