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    新年油價第一漲:加滿一箱油多花4塊5 后面還會再漲嗎?
    作者:中國板報網    來源:www.cqrgzs.com    點擊數:    更新時間:2019/1/24

      

      1月14日,國家發改委宣布提高成品油油價:自2019年1月14日24時起,國內汽、柴油價格(標準品,下同)每噸均提高105元。折合后,92號汽油每升上調0.08元,95號汽油每升上調0.09元,0號柴油每升上調0.09元。

      按一般家用汽車油箱50升容量估測,這意味著,加滿一箱92號汽油將多花4.5元。此次調整是進入2019年國內成品油的首次價格調整,同手也是國內成品油在此前經歷了5次價格連跌后,首次的上調。

      中國成品油的價格調整與國際原油的價格變動掛鉤。自2018年12月24日WTI原油創下階段新低42.36美元/桶之后,便展開連續反彈,2019年1月11日最高一度觸及53.31美元/桶,本月以來累計上漲超過12%;

      對于此次國際原油價格的階段性上漲,業內普遍的分析認為,是由于國際原油組織歐佩克(石油輸出國組織)大力實行減產計劃以及對于美聯儲加息放緩的預期。早前幾天,沙特官員稱,沙特原油出口將經歷大幅度的下降,OPEC國家的放言在一定程度上提振了原油市場的信心——在此之前,市場對于減產能夠執行到位存有較大的疑問。

      不過,盡管如此,原油價格的好轉依然讓一眾業內人士感到略為迷惘。國內一家化工企業分析人士向經濟觀察網記者感慨說:分析油價是一件太復雜的事情。事實上,歷史經驗也一再證明,油價的確很難預料。

      2019年,實現了開門紅的油價會繼續一路向上嗎?至少,在分析機構的眼中,眼下油價依然很難被看好。

      1月4日,標準普爾報告表示,將2019年布倫特和WTI原油價格預估分別下調10美元/桶,至55美元/桶和50美元/桶。2020年布倫特價格預估下調5美元/桶至55美元/桶,WTI下調至50美元/桶,2021年價格預估維持不變,均為55美元/桶。

      1月7日,高盛集團將2019年WTI原油價格預期下調至55.5美元/桶,此前預期為64.5美元/桶;布倫特原油價格預期下調至62.5美元/桶,此前預期為70美元/桶。

      同一日,法國最大的商業銀行法興銀行將2019年布倫特原油價格預期下調至64.25美元/桶,將2019年WTI原油價格預期下調至57美元/桶。

      此外,來自中國的宏觀經濟領域分析人士,對于2019年的經濟形勢整體亦并不看好——這既包括全球,也包括中國經濟在內。如果2019年經濟增速確如所料有所下滑,將極有可能會給原油需求帶來壓力,并最終影響到石油的價格。

    (文章來源:經濟觀察網)

    新年油價第一漲:加滿一箱油多花4塊5 后面還會再漲嗎?

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