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    去年12月進出口增速雙雙轉負 今年外貿仍面臨三大挑戰
    作者:中國板報網    來源:www.cqrgzs.com    點擊數:    更新時間:2019/1/25

      根據海關總署昨日公布的數據,2018年12月出口額為2212.5億美元,同比下降4.4%,創2018年單月同比最低增速。

      “外部因素導致12月出口同比負增長。”交通銀行金融研究中心高級研究員何飛昨日分析認為,一是全球經濟增速放緩導致外需強勁勢頭減弱。相比2017年12月,我國主要出口國家及地區的經濟景氣狀況減弱,外需開始受到明顯影響;二是2018年12月出口增速受到2017年同期高基數影響;三是貿易帶來的滯后影響開始集中顯現。

      此外,何飛表示,去年12月國內企業“搶出口”行為進入尾聲。盡管過去幾個月,中央與地方及時出臺了一系列支持出口企業的政策,各地對出口類民營企業和小微企業給予了更多支持,但這些政策的紅利釋放需要一個過程,政策對沖作用尚無法立刻顯現。

      從目標區域來看,對美出口下滑最快、當前增速最低。其中,對美出口回落了13個點,增速至-3.5%;對歐盟和對日本出口則分別回落6.3個點和5.7個點,增速至-0.3%和-1.0%;對東盟出口較有韌性,僅回落0.7個點,增速至4.3%。

      同日公布的進口數據顯示,2018年12月我國進口1641.9億美元,同比下降7.6%,創2017年以來最低增速。

      華泰證券首席宏觀研究員李超表示,進口數據相比出口數據降低的幅度更大,這主要是源于當前國內總需求的乏力。“預計2018年四季度GDP增速為6.5%,延續了從2018年年初開始的下行態勢,由于國內基建、房地產、消費增速下行的拖累,國內總需求減弱,進口需求不及預期,即使2018年12月份人民幣出現了升值,又逢進口博覽會剛剛結束,進口增速仍出現了超預期下行。”

      從全年來看,2018年貿易形勢仍然不錯。外貿進出口總值4.62萬億美元,增長12.6%;其中,出口2.48萬億美元,增長9.9%;進口2.14萬億美元,增長15.8%。而貿易順差已經開始明顯收窄,為3517.6億美元,收窄16.2%。

      “隨著逆周期調節、擴大開放、降低進口關稅等政策不斷釋放紅利,外貿結構進一步優化,預計2019年進出口規模將保持平穩。”何飛進一步判斷認為,在2018年高基數影響下,隨著應激式進出口增長風頭過去,2019年外貿增速尤其是出口增速放緩的概率較大。

      同時,何飛表示,從目前來看,2019年外貿仍面臨三大挑戰。“一是全球經濟下行壓力進一步加大或導致貿易增速放緩。二是主要經濟體貨幣政策取向不一,增加了外貿環境的不確定性。三是WTO改革方向尚不明確、多邊貿易規則或受到沖擊,外貿將面臨長期挑戰。”

    (文章來源:大眾證券報)

    去年12月進出口增速雙雙轉負 今年外貿仍面臨三大挑戰

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