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    完善制度激發活力 資本市場改革持續深化前景可期
    作者:中國板報網    來源:www.cqrgzs.com    點擊數:    更新時間:2019/1/25

      2018年,資本市場經歷了風風雨雨,也在各項改革措施的完善中走向成熟。2018年12月,中央經濟工作會議指出,要通過深化改革,打造一個規范、透明、開放、有活力、有韌性的資本市場,提高上市公司質量,完善交易制度,引導更多中長期資金進入,推動在上交所設立科創板并試點注冊制盡快落地。

      近日,證監會副主席方星海在“第二十三屆中國資本市場論壇”上再次重申了資本市場改革的重要意義。他表示,資本市場在金融體系中起著最關鍵的作用,在金融體系的改革中,牽牛鼻子的東西是在資本市場。同時,隨著我國資本市場對外開放程度不斷加深,國外資金加快進入,資本市場改革也將為我國對外戰略提供一個重要的抓手。

      進一步激發資本市場活力

      2018年中央經濟工作會議指出,要打造規范、透明、開放、有活力、有韌性的資本市場。方星海認為,資本市場“有活力、有韌性”,應當包含以下三個方面:資本市場參與者非常充分、交易非常活躍、定價合理。

      “有一段時間我們國家的資本市場交易非常活躍,股市活躍,期貨市場也很活躍,太活躍了,就出臺了很多限制措施,讓它不要那么活躍,”方星海表示,“但是情況在發生變化,現在不夠活躍又逐漸變成主要矛盾了。每天滬深兩市股票的交易額加在一起為3000億元,期貨市場每天成交量為1200萬手。”

      2018年以來,在資本市場波動的影響下,A股成交量萎縮明顯。數據顯示,2018年滬市總成交22.43億筆,總成交金額40.32萬億元,同比分別下降6.6%和21.14%;深市2018年總成交金額49.98萬億元,同比下降18.98%。

      為提升資本市場交易的活躍性,方星海認為,應當進一步放寬股指期貨交易限制。另外,為實現定價合理,將豐富多空交易工具,在期貨、現貨領域給予做多、做空者更加充分的手段,讓市場充分博弈。“我們現在各種工具都很少,所以證監會要抓緊出臺一些雙方都可以利用的工具。”方星海說。

      引導國內外長期資金入市

      2018年,A股加快了對外開放的步伐。MSCI提高納入比例,富時羅素指數宣布納入A股,同時,道瓊斯也宣布納入A股數據。此外,瑞銀成為首家外資擁有51%券商控股股權的外資機構。方星海表示,2018年外資凈流入股市3000億元,預期2019年將達到6000億元。

      A股估值長期處于低位,也是當前各方對我國資本市場的一個共識。但估值低并不代表投資者會入場,尤其對于我國以散戶為主的A股市場來說,股市的短期波動對投資者信心影響較大。方星海表示,“2018年有一個奇怪現象,即國內投資者不敢買股票,國外投資者拼命買中國股票。是不是國外投資者不夠聰明看不懂中國,而我們投資者很厲害?或者反過來,我們投資者不夠聰明,國外投資者很聰明?”

      方星海表示,資金結構不同決定國內外投資者投資行為的差異。國內大部分投資者無論散戶還是機構,到年底都要算一算盈虧,所以在市場下行階段,不斷地判斷是否見底,沒有見底不敢入場,而判斷底部是非常困難的事情,不好判斷,所以你老是在外面徘徊不敢進去。

      國外投資者則不同。一方面,不需要每年年底檢驗投資效果,投資期限為三到五年甚至更長;另一方面,外國投資者認為中國經濟長期是可以看好的,中國股市不應在這樣的估值水平,目前被低估了,所以就敢于大舉進入。

      興業證券首席策略分析師王德倫表示,隨著限制措施逐步放開、風險偏好逐步提高、市場逐步活躍,過去兩三年已沉寂的主題式機會、前瞻性概念性機會可能在2019年再次出現。

      促進市場回歸價值投資

      我國資本市場改革措施不斷向西方成熟的資本市場靠攏,成熟的體制或將有利于引導A股市場回歸價值投資。在推動科創板和試點注冊制加快落地之外,方星海在講話中建議取消新股首日漲停板限制引起了多方議論。

      據了解,2012年之前,新股上市首日并無漲跌停限制。不少新股首日股價就能翻好幾倍,但次日開始連續跌停,給投資者帶來較大風險。自2014年1月1日起,新股施行上市首日漲跌幅的限制,規定新股上市首日集合競價階段,漲跌幅不能超過20%。在連續競價階段,漲幅不能超過44%,跌幅不能超過36%。而T+1的操作規則限制則使得股價只能單邊向上推升,盤中無法做空,致使投機資金很容易以較小的資金量就將股價推上漲停板。

      業內人士表示,假設上市首日股價漲幅沒有限制以及在上市首日執行T+0的規則。那么,當股價推升到偏離價值的時候,自然就會有中簽者持續賣出,從而達到平抑股價的目的,這樣就可以讓股價在上市的首日即回歸到正常估值水平,促進市場定價合理性。

      中信建投證券策略組組長張玉龍表示,漲跌停板制度設置本身是為了保護投資者,特別是中小投資者,但也存在著三個代價:一是降低了市場的有效性;二是降低了市場的流動性;三是漲跌停板制度容易被操縱。

      但財經評論人皮海洲表示,A股的新股發行投機力量過強,不管首日漲停板存在與否,A股市場上都存在著大量的投機炒作行為。在很多監管問題仍存在的情況下,把漲跌幅限制打開是具有一定危險性的。相比于加強監管,取消限制與否并非當下亟待解決的問題。


    (文章來源:金融時報)

    完善制度激發活力 資本市場改革持續深化前景可期

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